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A bettor profited close to $500,000 by predicting the removal of Venezuela's president shortly prior to it was publicly declared, sparking debate about whether someone profited from non-public details of American actions.

Sudden Shift in Forecasts

Predictions made on the forecasting site, an online prediction market, that Nicolás Maduro would be out of power by the close of the month rose in the period preceding former President Trump announced on January 3rd that Maduro had been taken into custody.

A particular user, which registered on the site in December and made four bets, all on Venezuela, earned over $436K from a initial bet of $32,537.

The identity is unknown. This unidentified trader had only a string of letters and numbers for identification.

Odds Fluctuate Before Announcement

Trading information shows that participants estimated the likelihood of the president's removal at just 6.5% in the midday period of the prior Friday.

However these probabilities had climbed to eleven percent by shortly before midnight and skyrocketed in the morning of Saturday, pointing to a sudden change in market sentiment immediately prior to the public announcement was made.

"That trade has all the signs of a bet based on non-public details," commented a financial reform advocate.

Several of other traders also made tens of thousands of dollars from similar wagers.

Regulatory Scrutiny Grows

Elected officials are beginning to pay attention.

A bill introduced on recently seeks to ban government employees from making trades on forecasting platforms if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a wager.

Market Background

Prediction markets have grown significantly in recent years, with traders able to wager on everything from elections to current affairs.

Prediction markets encountered regulatory challenges under the previous administration. However it has experienced less resistance during the present political climate.

Insider trading is illegal in the traditional financial markets, but there are fewer regulations in the event betting arena.

A company executive for another major platform said their site "explicitly prohibits insider trading of any form."